Desk view

Every signal family on this page is scored −2…+2 by a deterministic engine (the scoring rules never change between runs — no vibes), then composed into a call per horizon. Conviction is how much of the signal weight agrees with the composite. The narrative is written by an AI strategist from the scored data, and the tripwires are the concrete levels that would flip a call. Informational only — this is a lens, not advice.

Tripwires — what would change these calls

Stablecoin liquidityUSDT · USDC — DefiLlama

Circulating supply and daily net issuance. Positive bars are net minting (new dollars entering crypto), negative bars are net burning/redemption. Sustained minting is historically a tailwind for risk assets; sustained burning drains exchange buying power.

Spot ETF flowsBTC · ETH — The Block

Daily net creations and redemptions across all US spot ETFs, all issuers summed. ETF flows are the cleanest read on traditional-finance demand: green days are net institutional buying through the ETF wrapper, red days are redemptions. Cumulative totals run since each product's launch.

Dealer gamma exposureDeribit options · computed here, live

Net dealer gamma by strike, computed from Deribit open interest and mark IV using the naive convention (dealers long calls, short puts). Above the gamma flip price dealers dampen moves (buy dips, sell rips — price tends to pin at big positive strikes); below it their hedging amplifies moves in both directions. Values are dollars of hedging flow per 1% spot move. Recomputed from the full options chain on every load.

Perp funding by exchangeHyperliquid · Binance · Bybit · dYdX — live

Annualized funding rates — the leverage thermometer. Positive means longs pay shorts: mildly positive is normal in an uptrend, but a sustained +20%+ APR means crowded leveraged longs (fragile), and negative funding means shorts are paying — often a contrarian bottom signal. Divergence between venues shows where the crowding lives.

Hyperliquid leverageapi.hyperliquid.xyz — live

Top perp markets by open interest, plus order-book depth for BTC and ETH. Thin cumulative depth around the mark price means liquidation cascades travel further — watch the walls (or their absence) before leaning on liquidation clusters below.

Liquidation radar — Hyperliquid whales

Largest live positions found by sampling the Hyperliquid leaderboard (top accounts by equity, volume and monthly PnL, then verified against the live clearinghouse — big names holding nothing are dropped). Bars mark the exact prices where these known positions get liquidated: red bars below spot are long liquidations (forced selling into a falling market), green bars above spot are short liquidations (forced buying into a rally). Compare position size against all-time PnL — size and track record are not the same thing.

Liquidation radar — Aave v3 borrowers

Large Ethereum-mainnet Aave v3 borrowers, discovered from on-chain Borrow events and re-checked against the lending pool contract on every page load — health factors here are read live from the chain, not from a snapshot. A position is liquidatable at health factor 1.0; the buffer column is roughly how far collateral value can fall before that happens (assumes volatile collateral against stable debt). This is the feed for watching a whale before it blows, not after.

Bitcoin networkblockchain.info

Price (light line, right axis) overlaid on each activity metric. NVT is market cap divided by on-chain volume — a high NVT means price is rich relative to actual value transferred over the network.

Ethereum networkDefiLlama

Daily fees are the direct "revenue" of the network — what users pay to use blockspace. TVL is capital parked in Ethereum DeFi.

BNB ChainDefiLlama

Aerodrome (AERO)DefiLlama · Base DEX

Aerodrome is the leading DEX on Base; volume and fee capture are the fundamental drivers of AERO value.

Price ↔ network correlation90-day window

Pearson correlation between token price and each network metric over the last 90 days. Levels compares raw series (both trend, so values run high); daily changes compares day-over-day moves and is the stricter test — a positive changes-correlation means price and network activity actually move together day to day. Note: TVL is USD-denominated, so its correlation with price is partly mechanical (locked tokens repricing) — read the fees and volume rows as the cleaner signals.